A Pittsburgh Perspective: What I think the Substack writers are missing about Pennsylvania & Selzer poll (Plus John Fetterman explains truck nuts to the NYTimes)
John Fetterman compares Trumps supporters to Swifties and why Iowa's poll might not mean much for Pennsylvania.
Song in my head today:
It is hard not to get caught up in the energy around the Harris/Walz campaign. Election season is fun; it is stressful, but it is also fun. Campaigns bring people together around shared ideas. Plus, it’s been a nonstop party here in Pittsburgh. Celebrities are phone banking, door knocking, and posting their endorsements on Instagram.
I have been thinking about this post since Nate Silver wrote about his gut feelings on October 23.
Over the past few days, I have seen Substack post after Substack post paint a positive picture of Kamala Harris’s odds on Tuesday.
- / - Kamala’s winning, and it’s not close
- - Polls Are Good, Early Vote Is Encouraging, We Are Closing Strong And Trump The Unfit And Unwell Is Closing Really, Really Ugly
- / - Why Harris Wins
- - After Kamala Harris wins
On Friday, the Wall Street Journal published a headline, “Pittsburgh Is Now the Center of the Political Universe.”
I couldn’t help but note a disconnect between what I was reading and what I am seeing and hearing here in Pittsburgh.
I started writing this Substack on Saturday night, and a friend sent a text that said, “Seltzer poll.” I honestly thought they were asking me what my favorite flavor of LaCroix was.
It took me a few minutes to realize that Selzer is Ann Selzer, and her poll for the Des Moines Register showed a sizeable shift in support for Kamala Harris. While waiting for Saturday Night Live to start, I listened to the pundits sharing their first reactions to the poll. I decided to sleep on this post and return to it on Sunday.
Campaigning is fun
Sunday morning came with more energy, more optimism, and more fun.
Author Michael Chabon is in Pittsburgh and invited volunteers to breakfast and door-knocking for Kamala Harris. I love seeing two of my friends in this photo at Ritter’s diner this morning.
Tweet after tweet of optimism. (Thank you to
, founder of Moms Demand Action and author of , for pulling together this collection of Tweets and memes.)
A feeling
I’ve been thinking about how I wanted to update this post all day. Here is what I’m seeing and hearing in Western Pennsylvania.
I have talked with friends, many of whom have been involved in local politics for decades, and with strangers. The conversations that we are having, off to the side almost at whisper levels, are all some version of “I have a bad feeling about this election.”
I haven’t quite had the words to explain what “bad feeling” means. It’s not one thing in particular that explains the bad feeling. I think these three videos help to set the stage for what might be happening in Western Pennsylvania.
The Mount Pleasant Halloween Parade: Yes, this actually happened.
I first saw the photos from this parade on the Pittsburgh subreddit. My first thought was this must not be the whole story. Regardless of how you feel about Trump or Harris, this display at a children's Halloween parade is stunning. I’m relieved that the response to this has been swift. The mayor of Mount Pleasant is outraged. The Mount Pleasant Fire Department has posted an apology.
The fact that multiple adults came up with this float and brought it to the community Halloween parade, and no one stopped it, says something about the culture of parts of Pennsylvania. I am fairly certain that nothing like float this would have ever made it to any parade in the city of Pittsburgh. Mount Pleasant is about a 45-60 minute drive southeast of Pittsburgh. There is definitely a different culture outside of the city.
NYT The Interview with John Fetterman: Trump Supporters & Truck Nuts
Lulu Garcia-Navarro interviews John Fetterman for the New York Times podcast “The Interview.” The headline, “John Fetterman Fears Donald Trump is Stronger Than Ever,” speaks volumes about what is happening in Pennsylvania.
John Fetterman knows Pennsylvania. He has campaigned across the state and is known for visiting the more rural counties. Take a look at his Instagram feed. He has campaigned for Harris in places like Erie County and Venango County.
From the 13:50 mark:
There's a difference between not not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists and anybody spends time driving around and you can see the intensity. It's astonishing. I was doing an event in Indiana County very very red and there was a a a Superstore of trump stuff and it was 100 feet long and it was dozens of t-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds. I mean, it's like where does this all come from? I mean, it was almost like like Taylor Swift kind of Swag. It's like of everything, it wasn't just a sign. It's the kinds of thing that has taken on its own life on that and it's like something very special exists there and that doesn't mean that I admire it it's just like it's it it's real.
Also, in this interview, Fetterman explains truck nuts to Lulu Garcia-Navarro.
WSJ Opinion: Americans aren’t sold on Kamala Harris
I don’t agree with everything in this video, but I think this is a much-watch video to understand how some voters are thinking about this election. I have had many people tell me they don’t like Trump but that they don’t want more of the same.
I think this video does an excellent job of summarizing some of what I have been hearing in the whispers of those side conversations.
From the 1:24 mark:
Enough Americans are ready to take their chances on another term for Mr Trump they want to tell the Democrats you don't get to do that … you don't get to drive the country even further into a new Progressive dystopia, deepening our divisions and sapping our strength and then turn around and say to the voters sorry but it's us or Hitler.
Some other weekend updates
In addition to the Selzer poll. The other big Pennsylvania election news of the weekend.
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are planning to hold election-eve rallies in Pittsburgh. This is further evidence that Pittsburgh is the center of the political universe.
Joe Rogan released an interview with John Fetterman. I am still listening to this episode. (I am sort of amazed that Joe Rogan has the most popular podcast in the US. Who has time to listen to 2-3 hour interviews?)
So what about the Selzer poll? Pennsylvania is not Iowa.
My first thought when I read about the Selzer poll was, “How accurate has this poll been in the past?” Thankfully, the Des Moines Register published a story on this: “How do past Iowa poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa?” You can read more about the Selzer poll accuracy on Reddit here. Turns out Ann Selzer is pretty good at this.
The one thing that really stands out in the 2024 poll is the shift in older women breaking for Harris.
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Iowa’s 6-week abortion ban went into effect on July 29, 2024. In September, the Des Moines Register published the headline “Iowa Poll: Most Iowans oppose state's 6-week abortion ban law now in effect.”
The Iowa Selzer poll could be good news for Harris, and it certainly shows a trend in women’s voting response to abortion bans. However, I don’t think this will be the same trend in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania does not have an abortion ban.
As I have asked people about why they are or are not supporting Trump, one of my first questions is about choice. The response I’ve heard more than once, abortion has not been banned in Pennsylvania, so it isn’t a driving issue here.
What to watch for on election day
My list of election day bookmarks is growing, but it will be interesting to see if there is a shift in the number of women who vote compared to previous years.
It’s late, I’m fighting daylight savings time, but here is a list of what I’d want to research if I was going to stay up for another 3 hours.
How does voter registration in the swing states compare to 2016 and 2020?
Has the registration by party shifted? The Pennsylvania Department of State gives some data points on registration shifts in their data that is available to download.
Which swing states have enacted abortion bans?
I have a friend canvassing in Philly. What she texted me is very similar to what you described.
TJ Watt for Secretary of Defense.
The endless prognostications about what recent polling tells us are useless. For at least three weeks now this race has come down to how perhaps 65,000 people in a very few battleground states vote. The rest of the polling doesn’t tell us a single thing. If you live in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, etc. then your vote matters. But if you live in Ohio, New York or California, I hate to tell you but your vote is literally meaningless since all of those states have outcomes that are preordained.
But, I suppose all the endless ruminations on Substack and elsewhere make people feel like they have some meaning in their lives. They would frankly be far better off going to the gym and working up a sweat.